“If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience.” – George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

In NASCAR races, cars run counter-clockwise around an oval at speeds of 300km/h with typically 30+ drivers on the track at one time. Tens of thousands of die-hard fans show up for every race – and that’s just a fraction of the millions who watch on television.

High speed bullet trains, like Japan’s shinkansen, also travel at speeds in excess of 300km/h. They follow the landscape instead of a repetitive oval and carry hundreds of people at a time - but no fans, no merchandising and no television coverage.

What’s the deal? The train is faster, has a more challenging track and far more participants involved...

Obviously what’s missing is the element of surprise and danger. Each of the 30 drivers in a NASCAR race are working independently of each other. They all need to be anticipating the actions of all the other drivers.

To have a shot at winning, you need to follow close, lest you leave too much room for another driver to sneak in front of you. But not TOO close in case the guy you’re following slows down or veers unexpectedly.

Fans can expect to see a lot of bumping, tire smoking, brake squealing and spinning out – not to mention the occasional spectacular fiery crash...

...not unlike how many retailers run their supply chains.

Stores order goods independently based on their forecasts of what they think customers will buy.

The DC replenishers try to anticipate and respond to what they think the stores’ actions will be. They need to follow close behind to avoid excess inventory, but not too close that fill rate is compromised.

Suppliers generally bring up the rear trying to not only anticipate what the lead cars (customers and stores) will do, but also how those in the middle of the pack (DCs) will react.

Like a full field race at Talladega, the “every man for himself” mentality certainly brings its share of excitement to the lives of retail supply chain professionals.

In contrast, a bullet train relies on a single driver with hard linkages between the cars and a fixed track. The cars can still be inches apart at 300km/h, but without the risk of catastrophe.

Granted, this kind of predictability won’t get hearts racing or attract legions of spectators, but in many cases excitement and unpredictability are overrated.

Sometimes the most well run supply chain is also the most boring.